Skip navigation
GEOPOLITICS | MARKET REPORTS | 19.10.2026

Market Report Q3/2026 – Presidents Negotiate, Companies Wait

Geteilter Halbleiterwafer mit Weltkarte als Motiv des Marktreports Q3/2026.

Everything Will Stay Different

High punitive tariffs and additional export restrictions are set to remain suspended until January 10, 2027. For companies, this means the wait will be prolonged.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump resulted in an extension of the truce in the trade conflict. On the fundamental issues of contention, however, little concrete progress was made: from AI and Taiwan to China’s influence in Iran and its support for Russia in the war in Ukraine.
For companies, the reprieve means a little more breathing room for now. However, it is impossible to deduce from this whether critical commodities will remain reliably available afterward. Anyone seeking to procure materials, expand production capacity, or finance new supply chains must be able to plan beyond the next diplomatic deadline.

The following three metals saw the highest price increases:

Balkengrafik: Preissteigerungen Q3/2026 im Finomet-Fixing: Indium 5,26 %, Gadoliniumoxid 18,19 %, Germanium 33,38 %.

Among the metals and oxides examined, germanium recorded the sharpest price increase in the third quarter, at 33.38 percent. China’s export controls continue to hamper supply, while demand for the metal remains strong in thermal imaging technology, fiber-optic communications, and certain semiconductors. Gadolinium oxide rose in price by 18.19 percent. The urgency with which the industry was seeking this material was also evident at Noble Elements: Through a buyback campaign, we mobilized inventories from private customers, who were able to sell at attractive prices. The importance of a reliable supply extends into the medical field, as gadolinium compounds are needed for MRI contrast agents. Indium rose by 5.26 percent. Here, the expansion of AI data centers is creating additional demand for indium phosphide for high-speed optical data transmission.

Geopolitics and security of supply

Postponed is not canceled

The extended truce between Washington and Beijing does little to change Europe’s dependence. A survey conducted in August by the German Economic Institute highlighted just how vulnerable the industry remains: Six out of ten companies that rely on critical commodities feared production stoppages or delays should Chinese restrictions be expanded. Eighty-eight percent expected higher procurement costs, and 71 percent anticipated supply bottlenecks. Additional time helps to build up inventories and establish alternative supply relationships. However, new extraction and processing capacities take years to develop.

For more information: https://noble-bc.de/insights/insider-news/rohstoff-stopp-10-november-deutsche-industrie/

Export controls become a personal risk

While negotiations on easing restrictions were underway, China expanded its ability to enforce existing controls. Since September 15, Chinese citizens may be prevented from leaving the country for certain violations of export control and technology export regulations. This poses a personal risk to responsible traders and managers. As a result, ambiguous transactions are more likely to be rejected, and additional documentation may be required. This increases uncertainty for European buyers, even if individual restrictions remain temporarily suspended.

For more information: https://noble-bc.de/insights/insider-news/neue-regeln-fuer-seltene-erden-china-schafft-vor-dem-10-november-vollendete-tatsachen-im-rohstoffmarkt/

Dependence on Fossil Fuels Makes Us Vulnerable

When it comes to oil, too, actual delivery capacity determines supply. In 2024, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz each day—about one-fifth of global consumption. In the third quarter, conflicts around the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab threatened these transport routes. Higher insurance premiums and unsafe passageways can make deliveries more expensive or prevent them altogether, even without a route being officially closed. This creates additional energy, transportation, and production risks for companies.

For more information: https://noble-bc.de/insights/insider-news/120-dollar-oel-zwei-kritische-nadeloehre/

Origin is also a deciding factor when it comes to gold

In September, Switzerland banned trade in gold of Sudanese origin. This once again brought the issue of verifiable supply chains into the spotlight. Swiss cantonal banks already offer gold that is traceable all the way back to the mine. This development supports the prospects for two market segments: gold with reliable proof of origin and gold whose history raises unanswered questions. Digital documentation, such as that provided by FINOMET, can transparently record verified proof of origin and ownership. Verification at the source remains indispensable in this context.

For more information: https://noble-bc.de/insights/insider-news/wenn-gold-seine-geschichte-erzaehlen-muss/

Raw Material Projects and Processing

The German commodities fund is taking the first steps toward a more independent supply. In July, KfW announced investments of 150 million euros in Vulcan Energy’s German lithium project and 50 million euros in Arafura’s Australian rare earth project. www.kfw.de However, smaller projects face greater challenges: financing is generally only provided for projects starting at 50 million euros, and pure exploration risks are not covered. As a result, projects that could make an important contribution to the supply chain—despite having manageable capital requirements—may fall through the cracks.
Another key factor is which parts of the supply chain are created and who controls them. A new mine does not in itself ensure an independent supply if its commodities still have to be separated and processed in China. Conversely, a processing plant in Europe alone does not guarantee strategic independence. The following examples illustrate how differently new projects can contribute to supply security.

Status of Selected Raw Material Projects and Initiatives

  • Positive Development: Lynas and MP Materials
    Combine mining and processing outside of China, with additional prospects in heavy rare earths.
  • Neutral development: Nyrstar and Storkwitz
    Potential for additional European supply. Economic feasibility and technical validation are still pending.
  • Negative Development: Hafnium in Bad Leonfelden
    Planned production in Austria under Chinese control. A European facility alone cannot ensure strategic independence.

Assessment of the key projects

Lynas and MP Materials are committed to building supply chains that go beyond mere mining. Gina Rinehart holds stakes in both companies, thereby focusing on integrating raw material sources with processing capabilities. Having in-house separation capabilities is particularly crucial for heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium. The acquisition of Meteoric Resources by Lynas, announced immediately after the end of the quarter, offers further insight: The Caldeira project in Brazil is intended to link new deposits with existing processing expertise. However, further development steps will remain necessary until additional volumes are reliably available. Physical inventories can bridge this transitional period.

Nyrstar demonstrates the potential of existing European industrial sites. According to CEO Guido Janssen, the company could meet about a quarter of Europe’s germanium demand. Price hedging and long-term purchase agreements could help facilitate the necessary investments. Storkwitz adds to this outlook by highlighting domestic production: Hades plans to develop the Saxon deposit using new drilling and extraction methods. First, however, technical feasibility, economic viability, and the ability to obtain the necessary permits must be demonstrated. Both projects offer opportunities but cannot yet alleviate the current shortage.

Bad Leonfelden highlights another challenge. In September, JPTech announced plans to produce high-purity hafnium in Austria. Additional capacity would, in principle, be welcome for the aviation and semiconductor industries. However, under Chinese control, this does not automatically result in an independent European supply chain. This case thus raises the same strategic question as the planned Chinese investment in the logistics company Zippel: Who controls the infrastructure on which Europe’s economy depends? When it comes to critical metals, this question must be examined just as carefully as it is for transportation routes.

Mining Waste as an Additional Source of Raw Materials

Old tailings piles and processing residues contain metals that were previously impossible to extract for technical or economic reasons. The Polish company Grupa Virtus is developing a processing plant for this purpose; in the Czech Republic, the Chvaletice project is focusing on manganese from historical mining residues. Such contaminated sites also exist elsewhere. Because the material is already at the surface, suitable projects can tap into additional commodities more quickly than new mines. However, the extent of this opportunity depends on the metal content, processing capabilities, and economic viability of the respective site.

Technology and Demand

New materials and components demonstrate the potential of technology metals. Three developments we reported on in the third quarter open up new possibilities, ranging from high-strength alloys to quantum technology. However, further development is still needed before they can be used industrially.

Hafnium Alloy for High-Stress Components

A development by Monash University unveiled in June combines titanium, hafnium, tantalum, niobium, and zirconium. Controlled heat treatment creates an internal nanostructure that combines high strength with ductility. This opens up new possibilities for particularly durable components. The process still needs to prove itself for mass-production applications.

Motorrad mit freiliegendem Metallrahmen und Hafnium-Schriftzug.

Germanium detects individual photons

The Stuttgart-based startup Germanium Quantum Detectors develops detectors for individual photons in the short-wavelength infrared range. Germanium opens up a spectral range where silicon reaches its limits. The project, which was unveiled in June, is aimed, among other things, at quantum communication and precise optical distance measurement.

Symbolbild eines Germaniumdetektors zur optischen Abstandsmessung.

Spirals Open Up New Avenues for Research

UCLA researchers are investigating how chemical reactions and mechanical forces give rise to regular spirals in germanium. The initial report from 2025 was followed by a more in-depth study in April 2026. In the long term, understanding such processes could open up new possibilities for structuring semiconductor surfaces.

Symbolbild spiralförmiger Strukturen auf einem Halbleiterwafer.

Growth Markets

Energy Crisis Accelerates Electrification

Uncertainty surrounding oil and gas is strengthening the incentive to switch to electric powertrains and renewable energy. According to an IEA analysis published in July, sales of electric cars in Australia, Brazil, India, South Korea, and Vietnam roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period last year. In Germany, renewables already accounted for 61.8 percent of net public electricity generation in the first half of the year. This transition is creating further demand for energy technology: neodymium and praseodymium are needed for permanent magnets in numerous electric drives and wind turbines, while indium and gallium are used, among other things, for specialized thin-film solar cells.

Humanoid robots bring AI to life

In addition to data centers, AI increasingly requires machines that can perceive their environment and act within it. As early as 2025, Morgan Stanley outlined a scenario involving approximately one billion humanoid robots by 2050 and a market value of five trillion U.S. dollars. This long-term forecast is not a guaranteed sales figure. However, it illustrates the potential scale of an additional market for sensors, semiconductors, and compact electric drives. For magnetic metals, this opens up another source of demand alongside electric mobility and wind power.

The defense uses the same commodities

The European NATO member states and Canada increased their defense spending by about 20 percent in real terms in 2025, as NATO reported again in July. Increased production also requires critical materials: for example, gallium and indium for electronics and sensors, as well as rare earth elements for high-performance magnets. Drones, vehicles, and other defense systems thus rely in part on the same supply chains as civilian manufacturers. Higher budgets create procurement opportunities, but do not automatically provide additional commodities.

Conclusion

The third quarter provided additional time but offered few reliable prospects for the raw material supply. Existing export controls remain in effect, while new production and processing capacities are only gradually coming online. At the same time, demand is expanding due to electrification, AI, and defense.
For Europe, therefore, short-term preparedness and long-term capacity expansion go hand in hand. Physical stockpiles can bridge supply gaps. Additional supply sources, domestic processing, and economically viable recovery must ensure that these reserves can be replenished later. Reliable conditions for investment and cooperation among policymakers, industry, and commerce are crucial.

The countdown is on. Europe must take the plunge.

Expert Commentary by Andreas Kroll
Andreas Kroll

The extended suspension of additional Chinese export controls gives companies some breathing room, but no certainty for planning. The countdown to January 10 is underway. If the controls are expanded, there is a risk of new supply bottlenecks, production losses, and significant economic damage. Companies must purchase materials and commit to orders today without knowing what their supply conditions will be in a few months.
The energy supply chain illustrates just how vulnerable such dependencies can make us. This goes beyond the availability of barrels of oil and open shipping lanes. Crude oil alone cannot make a truck run or an airplane take off. Only refineries can turn it into the necessary fuels. If these facilities fail or there is a lack of suitable processing capacity, additional crude oil is of only limited help. We are seeing the same thing with critical metals: A deposit does not guarantee a supply. In between lie separation, refining, and the ability to reliably deliver the required quality.
Europe is a sleeping giant. We have capital, industrial experience, and exploitable raw material potential. What’s missing is the courage to turn this into something in a timely manner. Those who invest today in processing, recovery, and independent supply chains will be able to deliver tomorrow where others are desperately searching. To put it bluntly: This is the time to “print money” for those who dare to make the right investments now. However, profits will only materialize once capital is actually converted into available commodities.
Trump is driving the energy transition—unintentionally, but with all the more force. The more expensive and uncertain the supply of oil and gas becomes, the more attractive in-house power generation, storage, and electric propulsion become. Gas retains one role in this: as a reserve for times when wind, solar, and storage cannot meet demand. Anyone who turns this into a new, permanent dependency and uses it as an excuse to slow down the expansion of storage is confusing the safeguards for the transition with its ultimate goal. Sooner or later, policymakers will have to yield to economic pressure. Any further delay ties up capital that we need for the next generation of energy supply.
For us as commodity traders, it is therefore clear: The energy transition is shifting demand away from fuel that is continuously burned toward metals for plants, grids, and storage facilities. We must build up this supply now. Europe has the capabilities to do so. What is needed are investments, reliable off-take agreements, and the courage to forge ahead. Until new capacities come online, available inventories and alternative sources of supply will ensure production. This is precisely why we must use this breathing room. January 10 is not a deadline we can simply wait out. It is a deadline for which we must be prepared.

Noble Elements in the Media

Sources

Price Development

  • Finomet Fixing: Comparison of prices per kilogram as of July 1 and September 30, 2026.

Geopolitics and security of supply

Raw Material Projects and Processing

Technology and Demand

Contact

You can also reach us by phone: Monday through Friday from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

+49 30 20898486-0

Privacy Policy Required field

More Articles

  •   
  •   
  •   
Risk warning and disclaimer:

The articles, information and analyses provided here are for information purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. They are neither explicitly nor implicitly to be understood as a guarantee of a specific price development or as a call to action. The purchase of commodities involves risks that can lead to the total loss of the capital invested. The information does not replace expert investment advice tailored to individual needs. No liability or guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the information provided or for financial losses is assumed either expressly or implicitly.

Noble BC does not provide financial services and/or financial advice. Furthermore, Noble BC does not provide individual tax or legal advice.

As a metal trading company, Noble BC sells high-tech metals to private and commercial customers. Noble BC does not guarantee any ongoing interest on the money invested in metals, nor does it make any forecasts of value growth or promise to preserve value. Noble BC sees itself as a dealer of high-tech metals in purely physical form only.

Noble BC advises retail clients that resale of metals is not guaranteed by any entity at any time. In market phases of moderate trading and oversupply, high discounts can sometimes be expected when selling the metals purchased.

Please also note the risk information in the purchase contract!