Tertium Non Datur – Europe is a Spectator in the Geopolitical Chess Game of Raw Materials
China is tightening the screws. According to Bloomberg, export controls for drone components could apply from January, similar to those already in place for critical commodities such as rare earths. In doing so, the People’s Republic is once again demonstrating how powerful the control over critical resources is. The West, led by the USA, is reacting with alarm – but what about Europe? Between the power blocs, there seems to be no room for a third player or a neutral position. The old principle of “Tertium Non Datur” – there is no third way – is becoming a bitter reality for Europe.
Resource War Without European Influence
China dominates over 80 percent of the world’s processing of rare earths and controls the supply chains for high-tech materials that are indispensable in drones, smartphones, or renewable energies. The West, technologically dependent on these resources, is forced to either rely on the USA as a defensive power or fall further into dependence on China. Europe remains the playing field, not the player.
While the USA aggressively attempts to expand its own raw material refining and forge alternative partnerships, Europe is lagging behind. Strategic initiatives such as the European Raw Materials Alliance are indeed a step in the right direction, but realistically, the EU remains a junior partner in the global power game. Between “made in China” and “made in the USA,” there is no room left for Europe’s own “made in Europe.”
China Plays Chess, Europe Watches
China’s game is clear: export controls are not an economic necessity, but a geopolitical weapon. No one likes drones. But those who can build and supply them can also determine what tomorrow’s world map looks like—for example, at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Europe appears here like a bystander waiting for the next moves instead of becoming active itself. The decisive question is: Can Europe forge its own path, or will it be crushed between the blocs?
Strategic autonomy—the favorite buzzword of European politics—often remains a mere empty phrase. Neither the development of its own extraction capacities nor investment in recycling and research is reaching the necessary speed. Instead, a decisive response is lacking: China plays with the leverage of its monopoly position, while Europe watches as dependence grows.
Tertium Non Datur: Decide or Become Extinct
There are only two options: Europe becomes a geopolitical player, or it remains a pawn. The global race for resources, fueled by technologies such as drones and renewable energies, leaves no room for hesitation. Europe must choose between dependence and independence. The latter would mean taking responsibility for its raw material supply and, consequently, for its security.
China is impressively demonstrating that rare earths are not just commodities, but geopolitical ammunition. The West is beginning to react – but what about Europe? If it is not careful, it will be left behind as a third wheel. Tertium Non Datur.