Taiwan's New President Stands for Democracy and Independence—But Also for Rising Tensions
“Peace is based on strength, not the goodwill of invaders!”—Some might say Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, is looking for a fight. With his assertive statement toward China, he is acting entirely in the spirit of his predecessor and party colleague Tsai Ing-wen. She too had advocated for an island state independent of the mainland during her two terms in office, thereby contributing to increasing political tensions between Taiwan and China.
Another Term for the China-Critical DPP
Taiwan has had a new president since this weekend. With Lai Ching-te, a candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is once again governing the island state. The 64-year-old received 40.2% of the votes in Saturday’s count. Lai’s main rival in the election was Hou Yu-ih from the China-friendly Kuomintang party, who received 33.4% of the votes. Ko Wen-je, the candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), received 26%. The election will determine Taiwan’s political course for the coming years, particularly its relationship with mainland China. Lai Ching-te thanked his voters for writing a new chapter in Taiwan’s democracy. At the same time, however, he also stated that he intends to further strengthen national defense and use deterrence to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait—the strait between Taiwan and China.
For China, Lai Ching-te Is a "Separatist"
Lai Ching-te is called a “separatist” in China. In his New Year’s address, Zhang Zhijun, chairman of China’s state-run “Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits” and high-ranking politician, said that the people of Taiwan had an important choice to make. It was about war or peace, prosperity or decline. Xi Jinping did not refer to the election in his own New Year’s address, but once again emphasized that reunification with Taiwan is historically inevitable.
Chinese Threats Particularly Strong Before the Turn of the Year
Over the past year, Chinese warships, drones, and suspected spy balloons have repeatedly been spotted off Taiwan’s coast. Taiwan, supported by the United States, plans to allocate the equivalent of 17.7 billion euros to its defense budget this year, according to Tsai Ing-wen. Despite these developments, hardly anyone expects a war this year. An “amphibious operation” to transport troops from the mainland to the island is still considered too risky at present.
Escalation of the Conflict Would Be a Severe Blow to the Global Economy
Nevertheless, we will continue to monitor the situation for you. Therefore, we cannot promise to spare you further reports on Taiwan. Even if the island state may seem like just a small country on the other side of the world to some, 90% of large container ships and 40% of global trade pass through the Taiwan Strait. An escalation of the conflict would therefore have serious consequences for the global economy. Rare earths and most technology metals, in particular, would then most likely no longer reach us at all.