Monthly Review September: Rising Commodity Prices Between AI and Geopolitics

Since August 22, new quotas for rare earths have been in effect in China. Mining and processing are now strictly limited – and for the first time, imported material is also counted toward the quotas. There is no separate import quota. Starting in October, the regulations will apply for a full quarter for the first time and are likely to further tighten global availability.

In parallel, the US Geological Survey (USGS) has published the draft of its new list of critical minerals. 54 commodities, including rhenium for the first time (again), are now considered strategically indispensable from the US perspective. The metal is essential for high-temperature superalloys in aircraft turbines and rocket engines – applications that would be inconceivable without rhenium.

In addition to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, massive protests in France are causing new unrest in the Eurozone. Yields on government bonds are shooting to record highs – precisely what is supposed to provide security is becoming a risk. Investors are fleeing to tangible assets: gold is marking an all-time high, silver is following suit. Technology metals and rare earths are also gaining weight as a diversification component.

Starting January 1, 2027, rare earths and magnets from China may no longer be installed in US defense systems. The basis is § 4872 U.S. Code (DFARS 252.225-7052). Anyone who does not demonstrably deliver China-free products will lose their Pentagon contracts. This requirement will significantly increase demand for non-Chinese sources – scarcity and rising prices are inevitable.

In line with this, the United States is officially adding scandium to its strategic reserve. A contract with Rio Tinto worth $40 million has been signed. Scandium makes aluminum alloys ultra-light, extremely strong, and corrosion-resistant – properties that are indispensable for defense, aerospace, and aviation. Investors who positioned themselves early in this strategic metal have already seen approximately 25% appreciation in recent months.

In Jülich, “Jupiter” – Europe’s first exascale supercomputer – is going into operation, capable of over 10¹⁸ calculations per second, a milestone in the global AI race. Meta also made headlines in September with the unveiling of its new AR glasses: the entry into a new computing era. And at IFA 2025, humanoid robots dominated instead of smartphones – a clear signal for the beginning of the human robotics era.

Whether supercomputer, glasses, or robot – they all have one thing in common: without secure access to gallium, indium, germanium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, any high-tech offensive remains incomplete.

Since the Chinese export controls of August 1, 2023, the germanium price has risen by over 210%, with 99.2% in 2024 alone. In December 2024, Beijing also imposed an export ban to the United States – officially for national security reasons. In reality, it is about the technology conflict: Washington wants to keep the most advanced ASML machines out of China, Beijing responds with raw material power.

October could become truly exciting: The G7 and the EU are discussing price floors for rare earths. The goal is to make production outside China economically viable. For the markets, this means: prices would be secured on the downside – with a clearly price-driving effect. At the same time, Washington and Beijing are hardening their positions. Every new step in this power struggle has the potential to shake the markets considerably. For investors, this means: stay alert – the decisive course is being set now.