Is the raw materials turnaround coming now? The new coalition agreement brings rare earths into politics
Right on cue with China’s export ban on heavy rare earths—a response to previous U.S. tariffs—the new federal government presents its coalition agreement. Included: many well-sounding declarations of intent on securing raw materials—but hardly anything concrete on the most urgent question of all: How will we obtain critical metals like dysprosium and terbium in the future, which only China can refine so far?
A dedicated chapter for rare earths – a strong signal?
In the new coalition agreement of the 21st legislative period, a dedicated chapter is devoted for the first time to the topic of rare earths, strategic metals, and critical commodities. Targeted investments in extraction and further processing in Europe are planned. 47 projects have already been approved EU-wide, two of them in Germany. The existing 1-billion-euro commodities fund is to be equipped with fresh capital for this purpose.
But while the political stage is still debating, China is creating facts. The question of how we are supposed to obtain processed heavy rare earths without Chinese refining capacities remains unanswered.
Europe's refining capacities? Still a long way off
Initiatives are indeed underway: The French Caremag plant by Carester is expected to deliver 800 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium and 590 tonnes of terbium and dysprosium oxide annually starting from the end of 2026 – obtained from recycling and ore. The Polish plant by Mkango Resources also aims to produce rare earths while scoring points with environmentally friendly production. Both projects are important – but will only be productive in one to two years. The demand is now.
Nothing works (yet) without China
Even if mining projects like those of Noble Group in South Africa could soon deliver – the actual refining still takes place almost exclusively in China. While European and South African partnerships can help shape fair and sustainable access to raw materials, Europe remains dependent without its own processing capacities.
A rethink towards domestic refining is overdue. Those who take care of capacities today secure our industrial progress tomorrow – and ultimately our strategic independence.
Germany discovers stockpiling – finally
On a positive note: The new federal government apparently recognizes the importance of strategic metal reserves. Long a standard in the USA, this topic has been neglected in Germany until now. Current events show how quickly supply routes can slow down or be blocked entirely – and how dependent we have become on Chinese mercy.
An example: Anyone wishing to buy in China must already disclose all application-specific details today. Even with approved purchases, delivery can be delayed by lengthy inspections. The factual consequence: European companies are left empty-handed – while the trade war between the USA and China continues…
Act now: Secure neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide
Neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide are not yet affected by export controls – for how much longer is uncertain. History shows that China reacts quickly and predictably to extortionate tariffs. Those who act strategically now secure not only stable deliveries but also long-term price advantages.