Inevitable Return to Nuclear Power or Sham Debate?
The energy transition is extremely resource-intensive, a point on which there is general agreement. As an analysis by the US Department of Energy diagnosed significant supply risks for 13 of 23 examined materials, including platinum and the rare earths praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, and dysprosium oxide, various media are calling for a return to nuclear power following the Swedish model. However, something crucial seems to be overlooked in such hasty conclusions: the time factor.
Shutting Down Is Faster Than Starting Up
It takes approximately 15 minutes to shut down a nuclear power plant. However, restarting it after an extended period of shutdown can take considerably more time. Since most decommissioned plants have not stockpiled fuel elements, these would need to be procured anew. According to Uwe Stoll, Scientific and Technical Managing Director at the Society for Plant and Reactor Safety (GRS), this can take 12 to 15 months. Specialized components such as fuel rod tubes would also need to be newly manufactured, which likewise consumes time. Trained personnel for the plant cannot always be readily found either.
Approval Procedures Require the Most Time
The approval procedures would require the most time. According to a statement by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMBUV), renewed operation would require the statutory reversal of the expiration (i.e., the shutdown) and a statutory extension of the operating period. The procedure would thus be equivalent to a new authorization, which can take two to five years or even longer. If a nuclear power plant were to be replaced with a new one—for example, to install thorium molten salt reactors with lower waste and risk—the total time required would be approximately 12 years.
Optimal Conditions for Nuclear Fusion
Lack of time is the unsolved problem of the energy transition, not resource scarcity. A renaissance of nuclear power does not help in this regard. Therefore, it might be best to proceed directly to nuclear fusion. Parts of the infrastructure of nuclear power plants can be reused for their reactors. Confidence that cost-effective electricity from fused hydrogen atoms may be realized in the near to medium-term future was demonstrated by Microsoft with its investment in the nuclear fusion project of energy company Helion Energy. The computer giant has concluded a power purchase agreement with the company for 2028, the year in which the reactor is scheduled to be connected to Washington’s power grid. (we reported)
The Resource Scarcity of the Energy Transition Offers Opportunities for Investors
We must somehow bridge the time until then. Our recommendation: Nuclear power, renewable energies, and nuclear fusion all require technology metals and rare earths. Since the current scarcity of these commodities is leading to rising prices, they can be an interesting investment with attractive return potential.