Hazelnuts are easier to count than ballots.

Counting the crosses on ballot papers can sometimes be difficult—we Berliners know that just as well as the Turks do. As with the election debacle of 2021 in the federal capital, many suspected electoral fraud when Erdoğan overtook his opponent Kılıçdaroğlu during the vote count on Monday after all. Of course, we cannot verify whether everything was conducted properly. Regardless, one thing is clear: the Erdoğan system is on the ropes.

“The long-serving man,” as Erdoğan is often called because of his many years in office, wavered in this election more than ever before in his 20 years at the helm of his party. One reason is certainly the high inflation and the weak national currency, the lira. This erodes investor confidence, which is a great pity. After all, Turkey has a great deal to offer that is worth investing in.

Many people are probably thinking of hazelnuts now—not because they are so easy to count compared with ballot papers, but because, alongside cotton, they are one of Turkey’s most exported commodities. However, the same also applies to metals and metalloids. Two years ago, the world’s second-largest rare earth deposit was discovered in Central Anatolia. Its size is estimated at 694 million tonnes. In addition, there are further deposits of rare metals, such as gallium.

Back to the election. In the media, it is sometimes referred to as a “fateful election,” as it supposedly decides whether Turkey will align with the West or turn toward the bloc around China and Russia. In both cases, the decision would touch Germany’s Achilles’ heel: supply chains. In the first case, Turkey would be allied with Europe’s systemic rivals, which would inevitably lead to political tensions. But even if Turkey were to move away from Erdoğan’s presidential system toward parliamentary democracy, political risks would remain. This is because it is still unclear where the new head of state stands on the criminal Assad regime in Syria. If Kılıçdaroğlu were to maintain friendly relations with one of the world’s most brutal dictators, the West would certainly not stand by idly. And where mutual sanctions can lead, we have known at the latest since the gas crisis at the start of the war in Ukraine.

Conclusion: Turkey may be able to contribute to supply chains that are independent of China. Ultimately, however, we cannot predict what will happen after the Turkish election. But precisely because nobody knows the future, the best course is to be well prepared. An excellent way to do so is a tax-free investment in rare earths and metals such as gallium.