Europe Between De-Risking and Dependence – What the EU–China Summit Really Means

Alina Pieper:
Mr Kroll, thank you very much for taking the time. The recent EU–China summit in Beijing was highly compelling, but also fraught with conflict. Let us start with the obvious: the EU’s trade deficit with China currently stands at around €305 billion. Do you believe the EU’s current measures—de-risking, Global Gateway—can change the balance of power?

Andreas Kroll:
To be honest: not in the short term. The trade deficit did not emerge overnight. Europe imports large volumes of Chinese goods, especially machinery, batteries, photovoltaic modules and electric vehicles. The EU is trying to reduce dependencies through “de-risking”, but that is a long-term process. Global Gateway—the European counterpart to the “Belt and Road Initiative”—is an approach to open up alternative markets. However, China’s financial strength and speed remain significantly greater. The next five years will show whether Europe stays strategically consistent or whether economic interests dilute the concept.

Alina Pieper:
The EU has called on China to use its influence over Russia. How realistic is it that Beijing will yield on this?

Andreas Kroll:
Highly unrealistic. China benefits geopolitically from Russia’s weakness and economically from low-cost energy imports. Moscow supplies commodities and oil on preferential terms—for China, a strategic jackpot. If Beijing were to abandon Moscow, it would lose an important partner in the global power game against the US. That is why China will talk about peace rhetorically, but in practice change nothing.

Alina Pieper:
President Xi said Europe must make the “right strategic choice”. Is that diplomatic boilerplate—or is there pressure behind it?

Andreas Kroll:
This is not an empty phrase, but a clear signal: China is warning Europe against close alignment with the US. Xi is saying: “Stay neutral—or pay the price.” Levers of pressure? Trade barriers, export controls on key raw materials and—often underestimated—the instrument of overcapacity. China can deliberately push prices down to drive European producers out of the market.

Alina Pieper:
On the topic of commodities: the EU welcomed progress on export licenses for rare earths. Nevertheless, skepticism remains. How vulnerable is Europe really?

Andreas Kroll:
Extremely vulnerable. 98% of all rare earths are refined in China. Even if we open mines in Europe, it takes ten years for them to become productive. In a serious scenario, Chinese export bans could bring entire industries to a standstill within weeks—from EVs to defense production. Strategic commodity reserves and bonded warehouses are therefore not a “nice to have”, but a matter of survival.

Alina Pieper:
Can the EU offset this leverage?

Andreas Kroll:
Hardly in the short term. In the medium to long term, Europe must invest heavily in alternative supply chains—Africa, South America, Australia. But even then, we remain dependent on China’s refining capacity. What can help are digital transparency platforms and physical stockpiles in Europe—measures some companies are already implementing. But it is a race against time.

Alina Pieper:
How do you see the future: de-risking or decoupling?

Andreas Kroll:
Decoupling is illusory. China is indispensable in many value chains. What is realistic is selective de-risking: Europe will look for alternatives in critical areas such as semiconductors, AI and batteries. But even in 2030, China will remain dominant—especially when it comes to key raw materials and the production of future technologies.

Alina Pieper:
There are voices warning of an impending trade war—especially over EVs and green technologies. Do you share that assessment?

Andreas Kroll:
Yes, the risk is real. Europe is considering punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars. In response, China could restrict exports of materials for batteries and solar cells. That would be a massive blow to Europe’s energy transition. A trade war is a lose-lose game—but political pressure makes it more likely.

Alina Pieper:
In closing: if you were to venture a forecast—where will EU–China relations stand in five years?

Andreas Kroll:
We are seeing a cold partnership: economically interconnected, politically estranged. Europe will be forced to invest heavily in commodities and supply chains. Those who act wisely today secure strategic resources and positions—those who wait will pay the price tomorrow.