April 2025 in Review – State of Emergency: Commodity War, Supply Halt – Is System Collapse Imminent?
April marks a turning point. What previously seemed like a simmering conflict has now escalated: China is turning off the export tap, the US is countering with escalation—and Europe stands in between, vulnerable and poorly prepared. Anyone who thought strategic commodities were a niche topic for specialists was proven wrong this month. Supply is breaking down, production is at a standstill, political responses remain half-hearted. We are witnessing a tectonic shift—economically, geopolitically, but also psychologically.
China Cuts Off Supply
In early April, China tightens export controls on seven heavy rare earths – with immediate consequences: European industrial companies, especially in the semiconductor, automotive, and aerospace sectors, no longer receive deliveries. Even existing contracts offer no protection. The result: initial production losses after Easter.
Chinese customs authorities are overwhelmed – and even metals not affected by the new controls are temporarily not being delivered. There are no immediate alternatives. Europe’s dependence becomes starkly apparent.
Unrestrained Trade War
The confrontation between China and the USA continues to escalate. Talks? None. Instead, tariffs, threats, and geopolitical power plays. Europe is caught between the fronts – economically and strategically.
The new Chancellor would be well advised to travel to China immediately after taking office, and then to the USA – instead of the usual reverse order. Those who do not act now will be left behind.
Half-heartedness in the Coalition Agreement
The new coalition agreement dedicates a separate chapter to “critical raw materials” – albeit a surprisingly short one. While projects for extraction and processing are to be supported across Europe, including two in Germany, and the raw materials fund is to be topped up, the political will to act falls short of geopolitical reality. Symbolic politics instead of substance.
State Access: The Asset Register is Coming
In addition to the raw materials section, the coalition agreement contains another explosive issue: the planned asset register. The government is examining potential access to art, gold, money, and shares. While technology metals and rare earths are not (yet) affected, the state is expanding its access rights to its citizens’ property. For many, this is a serious warning sign.
Trump Effect: Flight of Capital into Real Assets
Donald Trump’s second term brings massive volatility. The dollar loses value, US Treasury bonds plummet, gold breaks the $3,200 mark. Commodities are suddenly considered a safe haven again. Markets react to a president who openly toys with devaluing the dollar – and shakes international capital flows.
China's "Nuclear Option": Treasury Bonds as a Weapon
Perhaps China’s most dangerous threat: the large-scale sale of US Treasury bonds. Such a move would drive up US interest rates, burden the budget, and stifle the economy. The shift in power is palpable. And the lesson is: those who place their supply and financing in foreign hands lose control.
Public Voice
In Handelsblatt and on WDR 5’s business magazine Profit, I had the opportunity to contextualize developments from the perspective of raw material trading. The assessments resonated – because the topic has finally arrived in the here and now. What was once considered geopolitical theory now directly affects our industry, our supply chains, our prosperity.
Outlook for May
In May, we do not expect any easing – on the contrary. Further export hurdles, political friction, and growing pressure to act on European players are emerging. Industry is beginning to realize that dependence is not just a long-term risk, but an acute problem. At the same time, inquiries for inventory building, diversification, and price hedging are noticeably increasing.
For many, the race for commodities is now beginning. Those who are too late will be left behind.