This metal could be the next one to skyrocket

Artificial intelligence requires more than just fast chips. Enormous amounts of data must flow between thousands of processors. As transmission rates and distances increase, copper wires are reaching their limits. That is why they are increasingly being supplemented and replaced by optical connections: Fiber-optic cables transmit data as light pulses, offering high bandwidth and lower energy consumption over greater distances. Germanium compounds help tailor the optical properties of many fiber-optic cables. Figures from LightCounting illustrate just how rapidly the underlying infrastructure is growing: Global revenue from optical transmitter and receiver modules and related products reached $26.8 billion in 2025—an increase of 74 percent. For 2026, analysts expect revenue from silicon photonics chips to rise by 110 percent. These are not growth figures for germanium itself, but they illustrate the momentum of an important field of application.

A booming market alone does not explain an extraordinary price increase. Germanium is primarily obtained as a byproduct, particularly in zinc processing. A higher price therefore does not automatically lead to significantly more material becoming available in the short term. Production also depends on the processing of other commodities and the available recovery facilities. Demand can accelerate, but supply cannot keep pace indefinitely. In 2023, China additionally introduced export controls. Technological demand thus collided with a supply that was difficult to scale and with political restrictions. The price trend illustrates the momentum this combination can generate.

Germanium is not an isolated case. In our six-year comparison, hafnium is up by about 813 percent. As hafnium dioxide, it insulates tiny transistors and reduces unwanted power losses in modern processors. Gadolinium has risen by about 747 percent; certain gadolinium products have been subject to Chinese export controls since April 2025. Neodymium oxide is up about 280 percent, and praseodymium oxide about 162 percent. Both are key commodities for high-performance permanent magnets in electric motors and wind turbines. Different metals, different applications—yet time and again, industrial demand and strategic importance clash with vulnerable supply chains.

Scandium oxide shows that strategic importance alone is not enough: it has risen by only about 26 percent in our six-year comparison. Yet scandium could play a key role in the continued expansion of 5G because it enhances the performance of high-frequency filters. It also improves aluminum alloys for lightweight construction in both civilian and military applications. However, high costs and uncertain supply volumes are holding back widespread industrial use. Without a reliable supply, buyers are hesitant; without firm demand, producers are hesitant. Technical potential must first translate into actual demand.

No reliable forecast can be derived from germanium’s development. However, it does provide some clues: growing industrial demand, material properties that are difficult to replace, production capacity that can only be expanded slowly, and dependence on another commodity. Our candidate combines all four factors. It demonstrates its strengths where ordinary materials fail: under extreme heat and mechanical stress. It is found in superalloys for turbine blades in modern aircraft engines—in passenger planes as well as in fighter jets. The aerospace and defense industries thus make it a strategically important high-performance metal.

Virtually all primary production of this metal depends on copper mining. However, expanding copper mining faces significant hurdles: declining ore grades, rising project costs, and long development times. Based on announced projects, the International Energy Agency foresees a potential gap of about 30 percent between copper mine supply and demand by 2035. This does not automatically lead to a corresponding shortage of our metal: the composition of the ores, recovery facilities, and recycling also play a role. However, it does illustrate why additional demand cannot simply be met by increasing production.

The metal is called rhenium—and has already risen by about 393 percent in our six-year comparison. For us, however, it is not just the price trend to date that is decisive. It’s the interplay of demand from the aviation and defense sectors, sophisticated applications, and primary production that remains largely tied to another commodity. Germanium has shown the kind of momentum that can arise when technological demand meets a supply that doesn’t respond at the same pace. Whether rhenium will follow a similar path remains to be seen. It certainly has the key ingredients for another price surge.