Can a "major" war in the Middle East still be prevented?
On October 7, 2023, Hamas fired more than 2,000 rockets at Israel. Without Iran’s assistance, this number would have been only a fraction. However, Netanyahu’s eventual need to attack Iran is not solely due to the country’s support for Hamas. The emerging nuclear power has certainly not abandoned its pursuit of its own atomic bomb.
Netanyahu provokes a retaliatory strike
The USA and other states assume that Israel recently killed 7 high-ranking Iranian military officials. This would make particular sense if one assumes that Netanyahu is deliberately attempting to provoke an Iranian retaliatory strike. Because then Israel would have a genuine reason to destroy the centrifuges and other facilities that Iran needs for its nuclear program. The larger the Iranians’ revenge action turns out to be, the easier it becomes to justify an attack on the nuclear infrastructure.
Each day increases the risk of escalation
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian threatened, according to his ministry: “Israel’s regime will be punished and will receive a necessary and forceful response.” But what exactly will the Mullah regime undertake? Retired Colonel and military expert Ralph Thiele sees the danger that Iran itself could attack. As he explained on NTV, the exact reaction is difficult to assess: “One does not know what to expect and must therefore be prepared for anything.” Peace is not to be expected, as Netanyahu needs the war for his reelection. Several Arab states are involved in the conflict, tens of thousands of combatants are participating in it. Each additional day increases the risk of escalation.
Rising prices for the crisis metal gold
Investors should definitely factor in the risk for the global market. Gold offers a good opportunity for this, because it represents insurance for assets. Attentive market observers assume that the current record increase of the crisis metal is far from over. Since gold is currently going through a super-cycle, its price can easily double. The oil price is also showing a robust reaction—rising energy costs will inevitably lead to rising commodity prices.