"Taiwan must not become Ukraine" – Can new presidential candidate Gou ensure peace?

Terry Gou, the former head of Apple supplier Foxconn, has a lot ahead of him if he wants to smooth the waters. His first step on this path is to gather enough votes by November to qualify for the 2024 election. After that, he must convince the other parties, which also favor a better relationship with China, to support him. This is because there are very different views on what a “better relationship” might look like.

Taiwan is currently governed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates for Taiwan’s independence from China. Both Hou Yu-ih of the conservative Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party distance themselves from this, but in different ways. For instance, the Kuomintang wants to strengthen cross-strait relations through both a stronger defense and simultaneous dialogue with China. Ko Wen-je, who is also the current mayor of Taipei, relies instead on joint events with Shanghai in China to strengthen ties with the mainland.

Terry Gou has already tried twice unsuccessfully to become the KMT’s presidential candidate. This time, he is running as an independent candidate. In Taiwan’s presidential election, the candidate with the most votes wins; an absolute majority is not required. According to the latest poll by My Formosa in Handelsblatt, the Democratic Progressive Party can expect 37.5% of the vote. Gou stands at 12%. Only by combining the 18.9% of the votes from the Taiwan People’s Party and the 17.9% from the conservative Kuomintang would he have a majority and be able to become president. His concept: Terry Gou is banking on being the only candidate with management experience. Furthermore, he promises to develop the economy and technology so “that in 20 years, Taiwan will overtake Singapore and become the richest man in Asia.”

To bring clarity to this somewhat convoluted situation, we have consulted our sources and contacts in Taiwan. Some of those surveyed see the new candidate, whom some KMT members also support, as the strongman. “If he wins, then we have Taiwan Trump 2.0 in town,” said one respondent. “I think he would change the entire economic structure at the government level, the relationship with the US, with China, and even India. We would have a completely different game.” However, for many of those surveyed, Taiwan’s independence from China—which the DPP champions—is more important. As one respondent put it: “Taiwan is the front line for protecting democracy in the world. If Taiwan is lost, it doesn’t just affect the supply of high-tech chips; it is a loss for the democratic world.”

It remains for us to interpret that the pro-China parties will likely not succeed in matching the unity of the DPP. Consequently, the DPP will most likely receive the most votes, as in previous years. Therefore, we should assume that tensions with China are more likely to increase.

The situation is therefore very complicated; no one really knows what will happen next. The best remedy in opaque situations is to prioritize security. A timely investment in technology metals and rare earths can offer ideal protection against geopolitical upheavals and the associated market turbulence. Invest tax-free in these production-critical elements and be prepared for any eventuality!