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COMMODITY MARKETS | GEOPOLITICS | 01.11.2024

Are Germans foolish? Investors are selling their gold shortly before the US election

Illustration von Kamala Harris und Donald Trump

Almost the entire world is buying gold. Almost, that is: while India purchased 11.6 tons more gold in 2023, mainland China 61 tons more, and Turkey even 74 tons more, gold demand in Germany collapsed by 75% from 2022 to 2023—a decidedly poor preparation for the upcoming US election.

Refineries report significantly increased gold sales

While the price of gold climbed by almost 10% in 2023, many Germans have had their jewelry melted down. Several refineries report significantly increased gold sales. Precious metal dealers are currently purchasing coins and bars in large quantities. Appraisals of old gold regarding fineness and weight are in higher demand than ever. It appears people are currently digging out their last treasures from long-forgotten drawers and boxes. Quick money is taking precedence over strategic hedging. Is this a wise decision given the upcoming presidential election in the USA? Or is it ultimately particularly shrewd to take profits?

Trump's tariffs would isolate the USA

No one knows what November 6 will bring. Should Trump win the election, he will advocate for isolating the USA more strongly from the rest of the world through tariffs. This explicitly refers not only to China but also to the EU. This would be a problem for us, as the USA is an important sales market for Germany, for example, for the automotive industry. Trump would very much like to lure this industry away from our country. Furthermore, he plans to declare the FED’s financial business a top priority, which would have unpredictable consequences for the dollar (we reported)

Power vacuum in the USA as fuel for global conflicts

However, even with a narrow victory for Kamala Harris, trouble looms. It is considered unlikely that Trump will simply concede his defeat. Unrest could threaten. Even more serious, however, would be if China exploited American weakness to militarily seize Taiwan. This would bring all trade in the South China Sea to a standstill, which would have serious economic consequences.

Optimally prepared with Noble Gold

We know just as little as you what the world will look like on November 6. But no matter whether Trump or Harris wins: with Noble Gold’s new gold product, you are optimally prepared. After all, gold has a reputation for being an anchor in turbulent times for a reason. Its price does not collapse quickly, as central banks are not prone to rapid sales. And what banks do correctly, investors are, of course, allowed to imitate.

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