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<p>he articles, information, and analyses offered here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute any buying or selling recommendations. They are not to be construed as an explicit or implicit assurance of specific price developments or as a solicitation to take action. Investing in commodities carries risks that can lead to a total loss of the invested capital. This information does not replace expert investment advice tailored to individual needs. No explicit or implicit liability or guarantee is assumed for the timeliness, accuracy, appropriateness, and completeness of the provided information, nor for any financial damages.</p>
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<p>As a metal trading company, Noble BC sells high-tech metals to private and commercial customers. Noble BC does not guarantee a continuous interest on the money invested in metals or make predictions about value appreciation, nor does it promise to maintain value. Noble BC solely considers itself a trader of high-tech metals in a purely physical form when dealing with private customers.</p>
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<p>We are thrilled! We have been featured in Handelsblatt. Just in time for the start of Chinese export controls, the most important economic newspaper in the German-speaking region quoted the commodity analyst and Noble Elements CEO Andreas Kroll, saying, &#8220;Panic is an appropriate reaction.&#8221; The word &#8220;panic&#8221; seemed to catch on, and even Der Fokus used it in an article about the supply security of the European industry and our dependency on China for rare earths and technology metals. Panic is certainly subjective, meaning its presence depends on the individual. Moreover, with the right investment, there is no reason to panic. We have observed that the prices for Germanium, Gallium, and Indium have increased significantly since our last check on July 17, 2023. So, investors in these metals are definitely on the right side.</p>
<p>You can read the Handelsblatt article here.</p>
<h2>Export controls now in effect.</h2>
<p>Since yesterday, Chinese authorities can restrict the export of Gallium and Germanium at their discretion. This could potentially be a severe blow to our industry. Over 80% of the world&#8217;s available Gallium and 60% of Germanium come from China. Manufacturers of smartphones, mobile phones, laptops, solar panels, and military infrastructure are heavily dependent on these two technology metals, and even the automotive industry is affected. However, for investors, this potential scarcity presents opportunities.</p>
<h2>&#8220;Free rider&#8221; Indium surpasses Gallium and Germanium.</h2>
<p>Since the announcement of export controls on July 3, 2023, we have been monitoring the price development of Gallium and Germanium. The dollar price of Gallium has increased by 16.4% since then, showing further growth from the 13.81% recorded in our last check on July 17, 2023. Germanium has also experienced a price increase, continuing its previous upward trend. On July 17, 2023, the semi-metal had a price increase of 4.68%, which further rose to 6.5% by July 31, 2023. The absolute winner in price gains is the &#8220;free rider&#8221; Indium: The &#8220;Silver of the Digital Revolution&#8221; is part of many technologies in which the other two industrial metals are also used. From July 3, 2023, to July 31, 2023, it has seen a price increase of 18.1%.</p>
<h2>Industrial customers are buying up inventories.</h2>
<p>The reason for the rising prices is likely the hoarding by many industrial customers. Michael Harz, the CEO of Freiberger Compound Materials, whose company supplies German firms with Gallium products, has experienced this firsthand: &#8220;My customers are not taking this lightly at all. There is now a flood of orders to increase inventories. The industry is very nervous.&#8221; The company&#8217;s Gallium is almost exclusively sourced from China. Being prepared and stocking up in advance is the order of the day.</p>
<h2>Investing is still worthwhile.</h2>
<p>The rally of Indium, Gallium, and Germanium has just begun. We are currently experiencing an increasing number of purchase inquiries but still have stocks of all three metals in our warehouse. The industry cannot do without these metals and must consider their supply security. As a result, the demand for these three production-critical metals is growing, likely leading to further price increases. Investors still have the opportunity for attractive tax-free returns. Don&#8217;t wait; invest now in one of the most exciting asset classes.</p>


Resource panic in Handelsblatt due to Chinese export controls. Price for Germanium, Gallium, and Indium continues to rise, sparking a price rally not only for Gallium and Germanium.

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<p>As of today, Chinese authorities can restrict the export of Gallium and Germanium at their discretion.</p>


<p>Vietnam could become Europe&#8217;s new major source of non-Chinese rare earths. According to certain articles, the country plans to increase its annual production of rare earths to 2.02 million tons by the year 2030. This ambitious plan, given the time-consuming processes of mine openings, seems hard to imagine. Perhaps the authors of this news are not aiming to overcome the basic laws of physics but rather to manipulate the prices of highly demanded rare earths.</p>
<h2>565 Times More Tons of Rare Earths</h2>
<p>According to the US Geological Survey, Vietnam has already increased its production of rare earths from 400 tons in 2021 to 4,300 tons in 2022. This is an almost tenfold increase and shows what is realistically possible. A yearly production of 2.02 million tons would mean that Vietnam would be mining one-tenth of its rare earth reserves annually, depleting them completely in less than 10 years. Vietnam&#8217;s rare earth reserves are the second-largest in the world, with 22 million tons. To achieve this, the Vietnamese government plans to open four additional mines, in addition to the nine existing ones. To increase their production to approximately 465 times the 2022 production level by the year 2030 would be a challenging feat.</p>
<h2>Does the Vietnam Rare Earth Company Belong to China?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine the exact source of the 2-million-ton figure before it made its way onto the internet. However, the MiMa Report from the Center for Minerals and Materials in 2021 provides an interesting piece of information: The Vietnam Rare Earth Company (VRE) is 90% owned by China (the other 10% by Japan). Could there be a connection? What would China gain by spreading the rumor that an immense amount of rare earths could flood the market?</p>
<h2>Western Mining Projects May No Longer Be Profitable</h2>
<p>As China&#8217;s monopoly on critical raw materials intensifies, other countries are trying to become more independent and are advancing their exploration efforts. If prices were to collapse worldwide, it would hinder the West from producing rare earths and technology metals profitably. In that case, Western companies would continue to rely heavily on buying from China. This would provide the Middle Kingdom with a guaranteed market and enable them to use resource scarcity as leverage to achieve political goals.</p>
<h2>Price Stability through the Supply Chain Law</h2>
<p>Whether this scenario is true remains uncertain. However, it is evident that Europe has decided to hold companies more responsible for diversifying their supply chains. Relying solely on China&#8217;s cheap supplies and outsourcing the risk to the government will not work. This will create a market for rare earths produced outside of China and in an environmentally friendly manner, even if it means higher prices. Investors in rare earths should not be deterred; on the contrary, now is the most favorable moment to invest in this asset class.</p>


Over 2 Million Tons of Rare Earths Annually: Rising Star Vietnam or Chinese Hoax?

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<p>If it is true that Vietnam is significantly increasing its production of rare earths, the country&#8217;s reserves could be depleted in less than 10 years.</p>
